Boston Red Sox at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Lars NootbaarBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Smith grounded out to first, Wong scored, Abreu to third.11–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play11–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 110–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul10–3
- 9Hamilton homered to right (393 feet).10–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play10–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 39–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 29–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 19–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–3
- 7Arenado scored on Weissert wild pitch, Donovan to second on wild pitch by Weissert, Burleson to third on wild pitch by Weissert.9–3
- 7Arenado scored on Weissert wild pitch, Donovan to second on wild pitch by Weissert, Burleson to third on wild pitch by Weissert.9–3
- 7Donovan singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Burleson to second, Arenado to third.9–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–1
- 6Devers homered to center (404 feet), O'Neill scored.9–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play9–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 37–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 27–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–1
- 5Smith singled to left, Devers scored and Wong scored, Abreu to second.7–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 5Abreu reached on infield single to first, O'Neill scored, Wong to second, Devers to third.5–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 4Nootbaar homered to right center (441 feet).4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 4Duran tripled to left, Rafaela scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BOS -130 / STL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- BOS: Elo 54.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −12 | BOS: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +33 Elo | BOS 54.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BOS 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 10th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 12th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 8–1123rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–27 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–18 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 14–10 |
| Overs–unders | 17–27–2 | 20–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 0–5 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.