Detroit Tigers at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Andy IbanezBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cole RagansPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 12 K
Scoring summary
- 8Báez singled to right, Urshela scored, Keith to third.3–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 7Fermin singled to center, Perez scored and Witt Jr. scored, Velázquez to second.2–8
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–8
- 7Witt Jr. doubled to center, Frazier scored and Garcia scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–6
- 7Ibáñez doubled to left, Rogers scored and Keith scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 5Pasquantino singled to right, Garcia scored, Witt Jr. to second.0–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 4Velázquez homered to left center (430 feet).0–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–3
- 2Hampson doubled to left, Fermin scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–2
- 2Fermin doubled to left, Velázquez scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 52%
- ML DET -120 / KC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- DET: Elo 49.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -109
- KC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 3.7 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | 0 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · KC: Cole Ragans: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | KC +4 Elo | KC 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | KC 51.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.34th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–35th of 30 |
| 11th of 3013–12 | Road vs home | 20–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–27 | 32–18 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 13–9 |
| Underdog | 15–9 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 26–22 | 19–30–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 12–6 KC in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 18.