Boston Red Sox at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Wilyer AbreuBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brayan BelloPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Rays- Yandy DiazBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ryan PepiotPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Díaz homered to center (427 feet).8–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 7DeLuca reached on infield single to third, Palacios scored, Rortvedt to second.8–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 6Abreu homered to center (415 feet), Duran scored.8–3
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Duran doubled to left, Rafaela scored.6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 5Smith singled to left, Devers scored, Refsnyder to third.5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Refsnyder singled to right, Wong scored, Devers to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 5Wong singled to left, Grissom scored and Rafaela scored, Abreu to third.3–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Rafaela singled to center, Hamilton scored, Grissom to second.1–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Díaz grounded out to first, Caballero scored, Palacios to third.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Caballero singled to left, Paredes scored and Aranda scored.0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TB 57%
- ML BOS +125 / TB -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- TB: Elo 56.4%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- TB -133
- BOS +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 3.4 – 4.1 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +8 | BOS: Brayan Bello: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Ryan Pepiot: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +45 Elo | TB 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 53.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BOS | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.722nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.7 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 14–1412th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–27 | 22–28 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–18 | 11–21 |
| Underdog | 16–9 | 11–7 |
| Overs–unders | 18–29–2 | 25–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 5–14 TB in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 19.