Kansas City Royals at Tampa Bay Rays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TB.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brady SingerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Rays- Jonathan ArandaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 11Garcia singled to left, Frazier scored, Hampson to second.7–4
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–4
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking6–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 16–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 11Frazier reached on infield single to shortstop, Velázquez scored.6–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 11Velázquez doubled to center, Fermin scored.5–4
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 10DeLuca doubled to left, Ramírez scored.4–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 10Pasquantino hit sacrifice fly to left, Renfroe scored.4–3
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 7Ramírez singled to right, Siri scored, Palacios to third.3–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 7Blanco sacrificed into double play, right to first to third, Frazier scored, Hampson thrown out at third.3–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 5Paredes grounded out to third, Palacios scored.2–2
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 32–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 4Aranda homered to right (416 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 10 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 9 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rays 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TB 50%
- ML KC -110 / TB -110
- Pre-line forecast
- TB 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TB 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- TB: Elo 52.6%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- TB -100
- KC -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.8 – 3.8 TB
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TB | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1506 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −8 | KC: Brady Singer: team allows 0.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TB: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TB +18 Elo | TB 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TB 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TB 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TB 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| KC | Stat | TB |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.4 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.926th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 10th of 3012–11 | Road vs home | 14–1618th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TB |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 34–18 | 22–30 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–9 | 11–22 |
| Underdog | 20–9 | 11–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–30–1 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 4–4 TB in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.