Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Josh BellBatting3-4
- Jesus LuzardoPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Padres- Jurickson ProfarBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Matt WaldronPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Solano doubled to left, Machado scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–3
- 5Profar singled to left, Arraez scored, Tatis Jr. to second.0–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Profar homered to center (404 feet), Tatis Jr. scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 56%
- ML MIA +120 / SD -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- SD: Elo 58.0%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SD -128
- MIA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.0 – 3.5 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −5 | MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Matt Waldron: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +56 Elo | SD 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 28th of 309–17 | Road vs home | 12–1726th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–33 | 30–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 13–20 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–24–1 | 30–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–5 SD in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.