Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching9.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Blaze AlexanderBatting2-3
- Zac GallenPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Burger homered to left (441 feet).3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Lopez singled to center, Burger scored and J. Sánchez scored, Anderson to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 62%
- ML MIA +155 / ARI -185
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.7%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -166
- MIA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.2 – 4.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1461 | 1502 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +5 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +69 Elo | ARI 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.88th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.720th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.6 | Margin | +0.111th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–49th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–15 | Road vs home | 12–1316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–33 | 24–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 9–13 |
| Underdog | 17–18 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–20–1 | 24–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–2 ARI in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.