Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Andruw MonasterioBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jared KoenigPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Marlins- Josh BellBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Bell singled to right, Bruján scored, De La Cruz to second, Chisholm Jr. to third.2–3
- 10Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–3
- 10Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball 22–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 9Lopez singled to right, Gordon scored.2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 7Gordon singled to left, Bell scored, Burger to third.2–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 12–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 6Yelich stole home.2–0
- 6Yelich stole home.2–0
- 5Monasterio homered to center (410 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 56%
- ML MIL -140 / MIA +120
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 54.4%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- MIL -128
- MIA +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 4.5 – 4.0 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +6 | MIL: Joe Ross: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +31 Elo | MIL 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.824th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 6th of 3015–10 | Road vs home | 8–1829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–20 | 16–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–12 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 15–17 |
| Overs–unders | 28–18 | 29–18–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–3 MIA in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.