Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Joc PedersonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Brandon PfaadtPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Dodgers- Shohei OhtaniBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Gavin StonePitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Pederson homered to right center (409 feet), Newman scored and Marte scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 6Smith doubled to center, Ohtani scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 6Ohtani singled to right, Vargas scored.4–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 6Walker homered to left (414 feet).4–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Marte grounded out to second, Newman scored, Carroll to third.3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 4Ohtani scored on throwing error by catcher Moreno.2–1
- 4Ohtani scored on throwing error by catcher Moreno.2–1
- 2Moreno singled to center, McCarthy scored, Suárez to second.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 2Suárez singled to right, Gurriel Jr. scored, McCarthy to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML ARI +135 / LAD -160
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 62.3%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -145
- ARI +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.8 – 4.7 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | ARI: Brandon Pfaadt: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Gavin Stone: team allows 0.05 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +87 Elo | LAD 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 60.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 19–84th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–26 | 27–23 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–13 | 26–20 |
| Underdog | 13–13 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 23–24–1 | 26–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–11 LAD in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.
- May 20ARI 4 @ LAD 6Picked LAD 69%Hit
- May 1LAD 8 @ ARI 0Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Apr 30LAD 3 @ ARI 4Picked LAD 56%Miss
- Apr 29LAD 8 @ ARI 4Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Oct 11LAD 2 @ ARI 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 50%Miss
- Oct 9ARI 4 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss
- Oct 7ARI 11 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss
- Aug 30ARI 0 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 56%Hit