Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Diamondbacks- Jake McCarthyBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8McCarthy homered to right (399 feet).4–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking4–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 24–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 8Gurriel Jr. homered to left (381 feet).3–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–6
- 7Newman singled to center, Suárez scored.2–6
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 22–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 3Smith homered to left center (386 feet).1–6
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 3Freeman homered to center (415 feet), Rojas scored, Betts scored and Ohtani scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3En. Hernández homered to center (401 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pederson singled to center, Newman scored, Pederson to second, Marte to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 69%
- ML ARI +210 / LAD -255
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 64.6%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -223
- ARI +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ARI 3.4 – 5.1 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ARI | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +1 | ARI: Joe Mantiply: team allows 0.92 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +105 Elo | LAD 64.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 64.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 64.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ARI | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 3.42nd of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +1.71st of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–12 | Road vs home | 18–85th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ARI |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–25 | 26–23 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 9–13 | 25–20 |
| Underdog | 13–12 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24–1 | 25–23–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ARI 9–10 LAD in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 19.
- May 1LAD 8 @ ARI 0Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Apr 30LAD 3 @ ARI 4Picked LAD 56%Miss
- Apr 29LAD 8 @ ARI 4Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Oct 11LAD 2 @ ARI 4PlayoffsPicked LAD 50%Miss
- Oct 9ARI 4 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss
- Oct 7ARI 11 @ LAD 2PlayoffsPicked LAD 56%Miss
- Aug 30ARI 0 @ LAD 7Picked LAD 56%Hit
- Aug 29ARI 1 @ LAD 9Picked LAD 56%Hit