Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Gary SanchezBatting2-3
- Freddy PeraltaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jesus LuzardoPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 1Chisholm Jr. homered to right (374 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML MIL -130 / MIA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 58.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1533 | 1460 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +6 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIA: Jesus Luzardo: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +57 Elo | MIL 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3016–11 | Road vs home | 9–1929th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–21 | 17–33 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–13 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 29–19 | 30–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–4 MIA in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 9.