Milwaukee Brewers at Miami Marlins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Robert GasserPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 0 K
Marlins- Otto LopezBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Adames doubled to left, Yelich scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 8Yelich tripled to right, Bauers scored and Contreras scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 6Myers hit sacrifice fly to center, Rivera scored, Bethancourt to second.4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 6Rivera singled to right, Anderson scored.4–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Lopez sacrificed to catcher, Chisholm Jr. scored, Anderson to third.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Bell hit sacrifice fly to center, Rivera scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 4Contreras singled to left, Perkins scored and Monasterio scored.4–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 2Lopez singled to center, Chisholm Jr. scored, Anderson to second.2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 2Perkins singled to left, Sánchez scored, Miller to third.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Contreras doubled to right, Monasterio scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 54%
- ML MIL -130 / MIA +110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -119
- MIA +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.9 – 3.6 MIA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1532 | 1461 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −15 | MIL: Robert Gasser: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +75 Elo | MIL 60.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.529th of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.8 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 6th of 3015–11 | Road vs home | 9–1829th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–21 | 17–32 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 8–13 | 1–15 |
| Underdog | 18–8 | 16–17 |
| Overs–unders | 28–19 | 29–19–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–4 MIA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.