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Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast

Final

Away

Diamondbacks

24-26

6–0

at

Home

Dodgers

33-19

ARI 27%LAD 73%

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Dodger Stadium

Win probability

Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.

LAD75%50%75%ARIStart12345678Final

Game center

From the ESPN box score.

Top performers

Diamondbacks
  • Ketel MarteBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
  • Ryne NelsonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Dodgers
  • Gavin LuxBatting2-4
  • Tyler GlasnowPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K

Scoring summary

  • 8Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. to second on passed ball by Smith.6–0
  • 8Walker scored, Gurriel Jr. to second on passed ball by Smith.6–0
  • 8Marte homered to left (390 feet).5–0
  • 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
  • 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
  • 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
  • 6Walker homered to center (417 feet).4–0
  • 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–0
  • 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
  • 5Carroll scored on Glasnow wild pitch.3–0
  • 5Carroll scored on Glasnow wild pitch.3–0
  • 5Carroll tripled to right, Moreno scored and Newman scored.2–0
  • 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
  • 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
  • 5Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
  • 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
  • 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0

The pick

Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.

Dodgers 73%

StrongMiss
ARI 27%LAD 73%

Forecast Elo ratings alone

How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.

Market
LAD 73%
ML ARI +250 / LAD -310
Pre-line forecast
LAD 68%
Elo + market-implied
Elo ratings
LAD 63%
Ratings vs. market
−9.4 pts
LAD: Elo 63.2%, market 72.6%
Fair odds
LAD -265
ARI +265 · the forecast as odds, no margin
Pregame projection
ARI 2.7 – 4.8 LAD
Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5

How the number is built

Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.

FactorARILADWhy
Team rating14991562Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average
Home field—+18Worth 18 Elo in MLB
Starting pitchers0+13ARI: Brandon Hughes (no track record yet) · LAD: Tyler Glasnow: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts)
Elo ratingsLAD +94 EloLAD 63.2%
Market-implied ratingsLAD 68.8%Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context
Pre-line forecastLAD 68.0%15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend)
ForecastLAD 72.6%Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate

Tale of the tape

This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.

Try another venue →
Arizona Diamondbacks and Los Angeles Dodgers compared, with each team's league rank
ARIStatLAD
8th of 304.8Runs scored5.12nd of 30
24th of 304.8Runs allowed3.53rd of 30
13th of 300.0Margin+1.62nd of 30
12th of 305–5Last 106–49th of 30
21st of 3011–13Road vs home19–95th of 30

Rating history

Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.

DiamondbacksDodgers
1450150015501600league averageAprJulOctJanAprJulOct

Recent form

Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.

Against the line

How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.

This seasonARILAD
Run line23–2627–24
Last 104–65–5
Favorite9–1326–21
Underdog14–131–3
Overs–unders24–24–127–23–1
Overs–unders, last 108–26–4

Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.

Head to head

ARI 10–11 LAD in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 21.