Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting3-4
- Sixto SanchezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Diamondbacks- Christian WalkerBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Jordan MontgomeryPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Chisholm Jr. doubled to right, Burger scored, Chisholm Jr. out stretching at third.2–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Carroll hit sacrifice fly to left, Suárez scored, Barnhart to third.1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Gurriel Jr. doubled to center, Walker scored on error, Gurriel Jr. safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Chisholm Jr..1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1Walker doubled to right, Carroll scored.1–1
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Bell singled to left, Myers scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 61%
- ML MIA +150 / ARI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 58.4%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- ARI -159
- MIA +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 5.3 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1500 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +3 | MIA: Sixto Sanchez: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) · ARI: Jordan Montgomery: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +59 Elo | ARI 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 61.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.8 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.112th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 26th of 308–15 | Road vs home | 12–1419th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–33 | 24–27 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 18–18 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–21–1 | 24–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–2 ARI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.