Miami Marlins at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jake BurgerBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Ryan WeathersPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting1-3
- Blake WalstonPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Gurriel Jr. grounded out to third, Carroll scored.3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Burger singled to left, J. Sánchez scored and De La Cruz scored, Burger to second.3–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 7De La Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Fortes scored on error, J. Sánchez safe at second on throwing error by shortstop Newman.1–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 55%
- ML MIA +115 / ARI -135
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 56.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1501 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −1 | MIA: Ryan Weathers: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · ARI: Blake Walston (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +45 Elo | ARI 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 60.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.619th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 308–16 | Road vs home | 13–1417th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–33 | 24–28 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 9–15 |
| Underdog | 19–18 | 15–13 |
| Overs–unders | 30–22–1 | 24–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 5–3 ARI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.