Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jazz Chisholm Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Padres- Donovan SolanoBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Michael KingPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 7Cronenworth walked, Kim scored, Machado to second, Tatis Jr. to third.1–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball 41–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 3Chisholm Jr. homered to right center (416 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Solano homered to left center (376 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 64%
- ML MIA +170 / SD -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- SD: Elo 62.4%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -180
- MIA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.1 – 4.4 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1465 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +1 | MIA: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.80 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SD: Michael King: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +88 Elo | SD 62.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 62.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.2 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.4 | Margin | +0.110th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–16 | Road vs home | 11–1727th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–33 | 30–26 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 13–19 |
| Underdog | 20–18 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–23–1 | 30–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–4 SD in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 6.