San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Luis ArraezBatting4-5, 2 RBI
- Dylan CeasePitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Royals- Nelson VelazquezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fermin singled to center, Garcia scored and Witt Jr. scored, Pasquantino to second.11–8
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–8
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 211–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul11–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul11–6
- 9Witt Jr. singled to right, Isbel scored, Garcia to second.11–6
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–6
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 211–6
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging11–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 111–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking11–5
- 9Garcia singled to center, Hampson scored, Isbel to second.11–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–5
- 9Velázquez homered to center (425 feet).11–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging11–4
- 8Cronenworth doubled to left, Arraez scored, Azocar to third.11–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play11–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–3
- 8Profar singled to center, Kim scored, Arraez to third.10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play10–3
- 8Arraez singled to left, Merrill scored and Solano scored, Kim to second.9–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 27–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 8Merrill singled to right, Machado scored, Solano to second.7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 8Solano singled to center, Cronenworth scored, Machado to third.6–3
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 8Machado singled to left, Profar scored, Cronenworth to third.5–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SD 55%
- ML SD -135 / KC +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- SD: Elo 51.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -124
- KC +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.0 – 3.5 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1499 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −6 | SD: Dylan Cease: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +11 Elo | SD 51.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 53.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 52.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 3.52nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.45th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 4th of 3016–10 | Road vs home | 21–83rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–28 | 38–20 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 14–21 | 14–10 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 24–10 |
| Overs–unders | 31–27–1 | 24–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 1–2 KC in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.