Miami Marlins at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Braxton GarrettPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Padres- Ha-Seong KimBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jhony BritoPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Fortes grounded out to third, Lopez scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 7Chisholm Jr. tripled to center, Lopez scored.8–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–1
- 6J. Sánchez homered to right (412 feet).7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 5Bruján singled to left, Gordon scored, Lopez to second.6–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 5Lopez reached on infield single to third, Burger scored.5–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 5Burger singled to center, Bell scored, Burger to second.4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 3Kim homered to left center (379 feet).3–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 3Bell scored on error, Lopez safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Machado, Gordon safe at third on error.3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 2Chisholm Jr. singled to right, Fortes scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 2Fortes doubled to center, Gordon scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 62%
- ML MIA +155 / SD -185
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.1 pts
- SD: Elo 60.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- SD -166
- MIA +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | −2 | MIA: Braxton Garrett: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Yu Darvish: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +72 Elo | SD 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 62.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIA | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−1.5 | Margin | +0.210th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 27th of 309–18 | Road vs home | 13–1725th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–34 | 31–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–15 | 14–20 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 16–7 |
| Overs–unders | 30–25–1 | 30–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 2–6 SD in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.