San Diego Padres at Kansas City Royals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors KC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Padres- Fernando Tatis Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Randy VasquezPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Royals- Vinnie PasquantinoBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Alec MarshPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Profar hit sacrifice fly to center, Arraez scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 9Higashioka homered to left (351 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 4Kim doubled to center, Machado scored, Merrill scored and Solano scored.5–3
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–3
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 3Pasquantino singled to right, Blanco scored.2–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Arraez hit sacrifice fly to left, Kim scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 11–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Pasquantino homered to right center (383 feet), Witt Jr. scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Tatis Jr. homered to center (422 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Royals 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- KC 53%
- ML SD +105 / KC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- KC 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- KC 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.5 pts
- KC: Elo 48.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- KC -114
- SD +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SD 4.6 – 4.9 KC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SD | KC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −6 | SD: Randy Vasquez: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · KC: Alec Marsh: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +9 Elo | SD 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | KC 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | KC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SD | Stat | KC |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.36th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3017–10 | Road vs home | 21–93rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SD |  KC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–28 | 38–21 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 15–21 | 14–10 |
| Underdog | 16–7 | 24–11 |
| Overs–unders | 32–27–1 | 25–33–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SD 2–2 KC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.