Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Zach NetoBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Griffin CanningPitching6.2 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Mariners- Luke RaleyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis CastilloPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Neto singled to center, Pillar scored, O'Hoppe to second.1–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 8Garver doubled to left, Raley scored, Rodríguez scored and France scored.0–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 30–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 8Raley hit by pitch, Rojas scored, France to second, Rodríguez to third.0–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 4Raley homered to right (354 feet).0–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 64%
- ML LAA +170 / SEA -200
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.1%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -180
- LAA +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1459 | 1521 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | +5 | LAA: Griffin Canning: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Luis Castillo: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +79 Elo | SEA 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 63.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.1 | Runs allowed | 3.75th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.9 | Margin | 0.013th of 30 |
| 28th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 17th of 3014–16 | Road vs home | 20–115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–26 | 28–32 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–13 | 15–20 |
| Underdog | 32–13 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 33–25 | 23–35–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–10 SEA in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.