Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Alex BregmanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting2-4
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Caratini grounded into fielder's choice to second, Bregman scored, Meyers out at second.4–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 5Caratini homered to right center (398 feet).3–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Bregman homered to left (358 feet), Tucker scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML HOU +110 / SEA -130
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- HOU +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.6 – 3.9 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +3 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +32 Elo | SEA 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 53.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.85th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 28th of 308–17 | Road vs home | 18–106th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 21–32 | 27–30 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 14–18 |
| Underdog | 7–6 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 22–28–3 | 21–34–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–14 SEA in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 19.