Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Nationals- CJ AbramsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Rodríguez singled to right, Crawford scored and Raley scored, Moore to third.9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 9Moore hit by pitch, Rojas scored, Crawford to second, Raley to third.7–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 26–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–5
- 8France singled to right, Rodríguez scored.6–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–5
- 8Rodríguez singled to center, Crawford scored.5–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 7Abrams homered to right (406 feet), Senzel scored and Ruiz scored.4–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Winker hit sacrifice fly to right, Vargas scored, Ruiz to second, Senzel to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Gallo homered to center (393 feet).4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 24–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 4France homered to left (392 feet), Garver scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball 32–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Rodríguez homered to left center (423 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Polanco grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Garver scored, Haniger out at second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML SEA -175 / WSH +150
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 55.2%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- SEA -159
- WSH +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.3 – 4.2 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1476 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | −9 | SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · WSH: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.44 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +36 Elo | SEA 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 21st of 3012–16 | Road vs home | 10–1223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–29 | 31–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–17 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 28–18 |
| Overs–unders | 20–31–2 | 21–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–4 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 5.