Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Nationals- Luis Garcia Jr.Batting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rosario homered to right (378 feet).1–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Ruiz homered to right center (406 feet), Winker scored.1–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 4L. García Jr. homered to left center (380 feet), Abrams scored and Meneses scored.1–3
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Crawford homered to center (399 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 54%
- ML SEA -130 / WSH +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- SEA: Elo 54.1%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SEA -119
- WSH +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 3.9 – 3.6 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −1 | SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +29 Elo | SEA 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.416th of 30 |
| 14th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.420th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 19th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 8–1225th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–27 | 29–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–15 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 26–18 |
| Overs–unders | 20–29–2 | 21–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–2 WSH in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.