Seattle Mariners at Washington Nationals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors WSH.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mariners- Julio RodriguezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Logan GilbertPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting2-2, 1 RBI
- Trevor WilliamsPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Gallo singled to right, Ruiz scored.1–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 7Vargas grounded out to shortstop, Robles scored, Ruiz to second.1–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Rodríguez homered to center (433 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 2Ruiz hit sacrifice fly to center, L. García Jr. scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML SEA -165 / WSH +140
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.7 pts
- SEA: Elo 53.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- WSH +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SEA 5.2 – 4.3 WSH
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SEA | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +2 | SEA: Logan Gilbert: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · WSH: Trevor Williams: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +22 Elo | SEA 53.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 60.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 59.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| SEA | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.023rd of 30 |
| 9th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −0.319th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 20th of 3012–15 | Road vs home | 9–1223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SEA |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–28 | 30–19 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–16 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 12–12 | 27–18 |
| Overs–unders | 20–30–2 | 21–27–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SEA 1–3 WSH in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.