Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Kyle TuckerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ronel BlancoPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Athletics- Max SchuemannBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron BrooksPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Langeliers homered to center (411 feet).5–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Schuemann homered to left center (403 feet).5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Tucker homered to right center (403 feet), Altuve scored.5–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Altuve singled to left, Meyers scored and Dubón scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Diaz hit sacrifice fly to center, Singleton scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML HOU -170 / OAK +145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.3 pts
- HOU: Elo 61.0%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -154
- OAK +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.7 – 3.8 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +19 | +5 | HOU: Ronel Blanco: team allows 0.93 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · OAK: Aaron Brooks: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +78 Elo | HOU 61.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 27th of 307–14 | Road vs home | 13–1521st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–30 | 24–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 13–25 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 21–23 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24–3 | 28–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 15–4 OAK in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 19.