Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Jake MeyersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle MullerPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Andujar singled to center, Bleday scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 36–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 5Bleday homered to right (391 feet).6–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking6–1
- 4Meyers homered to left (403 feet), Peña scored and Singleton scored.6–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–1
- 4Bregman singled to center, Tucker scored and Alvarez scored.3–1
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 33–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 4Alvarez doubled to center, Altuve scored, Tucker to third.1–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Andujar singled to left, Bleday scored, Rooker to second.0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 61%
- ML HOU -175 / OAK +150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- HOU: Elo 62.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -159
- OAK +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 4.8 – 3.7 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −10 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Ross Stripling: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +85 Elo | HOU 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.127th of 30 |
| 6th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–828th of 30 |
| 28th of 306–13 | Road vs home | 12–1420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–30 | 24–28 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 12–25 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders | 21–24–3 | 27–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 14–3 OAK in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 17.