Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Athletics- Seth BrownBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron BrooksPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Toro homered to right (396 feet).4–5
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 7Brown homered to center (414 feet), Gelof scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Tovar homered to left center (411 feet).4–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 13–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 6Bleday scored on Quantrill wild pitch.3–2
- 6Bleday scored on Quantrill wild pitch.3–2
- 5Tovar homered to left center (443 feet).3–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 3Davis homered to left (407 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1McMahon homered to right (393 feet), Blackmon scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 30–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 53%
- ML COL +105 / OAK -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- OAK: Elo 50.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OAK -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +4 | COL: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Aaron Brooks: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +3 Elo | OAK 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 56.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–19 | Road vs home | 10–1321st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–21 | 24–25 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–3 |
| Underdog | 21–19 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders | 25–18 | 25–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–2 OAK in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.