Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Giants- Thairo EstradaBatting3-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mason BlackPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Matos doubled to left, Estrada scored and Chapman scored, Ramos to third.5–10
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–8
- 7Luciano singled to right, Yastrzemski scored, Luciano to second, Sabol to third.5–8
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 15–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–7
- 7Matos grounded out to pitcher, Chapman scored, Yastrzemski to second.5–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 15–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 6Tovar doubled to left, Blackmon scored.5–6
- 6Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 34–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 24–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 14–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–6
- 5Matos reached on infield single to third, Chapman scored, Yastrzemski to second.4–6
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 5Estrada homered to left (370 feet), Soler scored and Wade Jr. scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 4Matos doubled to left, Yastrzemski scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–1
- 2Beck homered to center (410 feet).4–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 56%
- ML COL +120 / SF -140
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- SF: Elo 57.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- SF -128
- COL +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.5 – 4.0 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1444 | 1475 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | 0 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Mason Black: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +50 Elo | SF 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 59.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 29th of 305.3 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.3 | Margin | −1.024th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–16 | Road vs home | 12–1011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–18 | 21–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 23–17 | 21–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–11 SF in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.