Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Giants- Luis MatosBatting3-5, 1 HR, 6 RBI
- Kyle HarrisonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Casali singled to center, Matos scored and Ramos scored, Luciano thrown out at third.4–14
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–14
- 8Ramos hit a ground rule double, Chapman scored, Matos to third.4–12
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–12
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–11
- 8Matos singled to center, Estrada scored and Wade Jr. scored, Chapman to second.4–11
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–11
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–9
- 8Estrada doubled to left, Soler scored.4–9
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–9
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking4–8
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–8
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–8
- 7Ramos singled to left, Chapman scored.4–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–7
- 6Soler singled to left, Luciano scored, Yastrzemski to third.4–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–7
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 34–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 6Goodman singled to center, Doyle scored.4–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 3Matos doubled to center, Chapman scored.3–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–6
- 3Montero singled to center, Tovar scored and McMahon scored.3–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 3Tovar singled to center, Goodman scored.1–5
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 2Estrada hit sacrifice fly to center, Casali scored, Soler to third.0–5
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–5
- 2Soler doubled to left, Luciano scored, Casali to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 59%
- ML COL +135 / SF -155
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- SF: Elo 59.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -143
- COL +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 4.6 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1441 | 1478 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +9 | COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · SF: Kyle Harrison: team allows 0.45 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +64 Elo | SF 59.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 60.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.923rd of 30 |
| 29th of 305.4 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.4 | Margin | −0.924th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–17 | Road vs home | 13–1011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–19 | 22–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 9–14 |
| Underdog | 21–17 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 24–17 | 22–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–12 SF in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.