Colorado Rockies at San Francisco Giants, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SF.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Ryan McMahonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jordan HicksPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Ramos homered to center (409 feet).1–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 5Estrada scored on error, Matos safe at first on fielding error by third baseman McMahon, Chapman safe at third on error.1–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Chapman reached on infield single to shortstop, Casali scored, Estrada to second.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Wade Jr. singled to right, Luciano scored, Casali to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 1McMahon homered to left center (377 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- SF 67%
- ML COL +190 / SF -225
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.3 pts
- SF: Elo 57.5%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- SF -201
- COL +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.0 – 4.5 SF
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | SF | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1438 | 1480 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −8 | COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · SF: Jordan Hicks: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +52 Elo | SF 57.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 61.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | SF |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 30th of 305.6 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −0.724th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–18 | Road vs home | 14–1010th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  SF |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 22–20 | 23–23 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 21–18 | 13–9 |
| Overs–unders | 25–17 | 23–22–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–13 SF in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 18.