Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Elias DiazBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Athletics- JJ BledayBatting1-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Mitch SpencePitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 12Gelof grounded into double play, third to second to first, Langeliers scored, Brown out at second.4–3
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 14–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 12McMahon homered to right center (401 feet), Cave scored.4–2
- 12Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–2
- 12Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 12Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging2–2
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 9Gelof singled to center, Ruiz scored, Brown to third.2–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–1
- 4Bleday homered to right center (392 feet).2–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Díaz homered to center (401 feet), Blackmon scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 57%
- ML COL +125 / OAK -145
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.3 pts
- OAK: Elo 49.8%, market 57.1%
- Fair odds
- OAK -133
- COL +133 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.4 – 4.1 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1436 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −5 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · OAK: Mitch Spence: team allows 0.25 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | COL +1 Elo | COL 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 55.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 55.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 57.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.6 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 29th of 306–20 | Road vs home | 11–1320th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–21 | 24–26 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–4 |
| Underdog | 22–19 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders | 26–18 | 26–24 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 1–3 OAK in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.