Colorado Rockies at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Brenton DoyleBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Ryan FeltnerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Athletics- J.D. DavisBatting2-6, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey EstesPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 11Soderstrom walked, Brown scored, McCann to second, Gelof to third.9–10
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 49–10
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 39–9
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 29–9
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 19–9
- 11Bleday homered to center (409 feet), Toro scored.9–9
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–9
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 29–7
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–7
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–7
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 19–7
- 11Toro singled to right, Schuemann scored.9–7
- 11Pitch 7 : Ball In Play9–7
- 11Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–6
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball 29–6
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball 19–6
- 11Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–6
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul9–6
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–6
- 11Schuemann doubled to left, Cameron scored.9–6
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–6
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 19–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–5
- 11Rodgers doubled to left, Blackmon scored and Doyle scored.9–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 11Doyle reached on infield single to shortstop, Cave scored, Blackmon to third.7–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 26–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 16–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 11Cave singled to right, Díaz scored.6–5
- 11Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–5
- 11Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 15–5
- 11Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–5
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Athletics 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- OAK 53%
- ML COL +105 / OAK -125
- Pre-line forecast
- OAK 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OAK 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.1 pts
- OAK: Elo 52.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- OAK -114
- COL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.6 – 3.9 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1437 | 1430 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −5 | COL: Ryan Feltner: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · OAK: Joey Estes: team allows 0.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | OAK +15 Elo | OAK 52.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OAK 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OAK 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OAK 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| COL | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.0 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 30th of 305.5 | Runs allowed | 4.926th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−1.5 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 29th of 307–20 | Road vs home | 11–1420th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 24–21 | 24–27 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–5 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 21–22 |
| Overs–unders | 26–19 | 26–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 2–3 OAK in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.