Houston Astros at Oakland Athletics, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors OAK.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Mauricio DubonBatting2-3
- Spencer ArrighettiPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Athletics- Brent RookerBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- JP SearsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 6Cameron singled to left, Brown scored, McCann to second.1–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 6Tucker hit sacrifice fly to right, Dubón scored.1–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Rooker doubled to left, Bleday scored and Toro scored.0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Astros 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 59%
- Fair odds
- HOU -142
- OAK +142 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 5.1 – 4.4 OAK
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | OAK | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1429 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +3 | HOU: Spencer Arrighetti: team allows 0.24 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · OAK: JP Sears: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +61 Elo | HOU 58.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 58.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 3.827th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 5.026th of 30 |
| 15th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.227th of 30 |
| 7th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 2–827th of 30 |
| 26th of 307–13 | Road vs home | 12–1523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU | OAK |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–30 | 24–29 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 1–9 |
| Favorite | 13–25 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 6–5 | 21–23 |
| Overs–unders | 22–24–3 | 28–25 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 15–3 OAK in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 15 of 18.