Houston Astros at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-4
- Justin VerlanderPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 9 K
Mariners- Dominic CanzoneBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- George KirbyPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 10Crawford hit sacrifice fly to right, Clase scored.1–2
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Canzone homered to right center (411 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 4Meyers singled to center, Alvarez scored, Bregman to third.1–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 30–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 51%
- ML HOU -115 / SEA -105
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- HOU: Elo 48.3%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- HOU -104
- SEA +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 3.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1513 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −3 | HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: George Kirby: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +12 Elo | SEA 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 51.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| HOU | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.727th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 16th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.114th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 28th of 308–16 | Road vs home | 17–107th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 20–32 | 27–29 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 14–26 | 14–17 |
| Underdog | 6–6 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 22–27–3 | 21–33–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 5–13 SEA in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 18.