Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Willie CalhounBatting2-4
- Reid DetmersPitching3.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Mariners- J.P. CrawfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Bryce MillerPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 6Raleigh doubled to right, Moore scored and Rodríguez scored.0–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–7
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–7
- 6Rodríguez singled to center, Bliss scored, Moore to third.0–7
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–7
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–6
- 6Raley homered to left center (403 feet).0–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 30–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Crawford homered to right (359 feet), Haniger scored, Raley scored and Bliss scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
- 3Rodríguez singled to left, Bliss scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 61%
- ML LAA +145 / SEA -170
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SEA: Elo 59.3%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- SEA -154
- LAA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 3.3 – 4.2 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1462 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | −15 | LAA: Reid Detmers: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryce Miller: team allows 0.75 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +66 Elo | SEA 59.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 58.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.729th of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.87th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 12th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 19–116th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 32–25 | 27–32 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 0–13 | 14–20 |
| Underdog | 32–12 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 32–25 | 22–35–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–9 SEA in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 14.