Los Angeles Angels at Seattle Mariners, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SEA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Angels- Jo AdellBatting1-1, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jose SorianoPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Mariners- Ty FranceBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Bryan WooPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8France homered to left (417 feet).4–5
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 24–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 7Adell homered to left (360 feet), Calhoun scored, Pillar scored and O'Hoppe scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 5Raleigh singled to right, Crawford scored, Raleigh to second.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 1France doubled to right, Rodríguez scored and Rojas scored.0–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 1Raleigh hit sacrifice fly to left, Crawford scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mariners 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SEA 60%
- ML LAA +140 / SEA -165
- Pre-line forecast
- SEA 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SEA 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.2 pts
- SEA: Elo 61.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- SEA -149
- LAA +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAA 2.8 – 3.7 SEA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAA | SEA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1463 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +6 | LAA: Jose Soriano: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · SEA: Bryan Woo: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SEA +79 Elo | SEA 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SEA 61.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SEA 61.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SEA 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAA | Stat | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 28th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 3.88th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 11th of 3014–14 | Road vs home | 18–117th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAA |  SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 31–25 | 27–31 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 0–13 | 14–19 |
| Underdog | 31–12 | 13–12 |
| Overs–unders | 31–25 | 21–35–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAA 5–8 SEA in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 13.