St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors HOU.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-3, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Astros- Yordan AlvarezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Altuve hit a ground rule double, McCormick scored.4–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–7
- 8Diaz homered to left (393 feet), Meyers scored.4–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–6
- 8Bregman homered to left (414 feet).4–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 34–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 24–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking4–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 6Meyers reached on infield single to shortstop, Alvarez scored.4–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Gorman homered to right center (397 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Alvarez homered to right (372 feet), Dubón scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Arenado singled to left, Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to second, Gorman to third.3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 1Gorman homered to right center (407 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 1Burleson homered to right (363 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Astros 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- HOU 63%
- ML STL +160 / HOU -190
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 58.2%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- HOU -170
- STL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.2 – 4.3 HOU
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | HOU | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.33 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · HOU: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | HOU +58 Elo | HOU 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 61.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 60.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.314th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.517th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.116th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 15th of 3015–17 | Road vs home | 15–1719th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–29 | 23–34 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 15–28 |
| Underdog | 19–14 | 8–6 |
| Overs–unders | 24–30–2 | 22–32–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 1–2 HOU in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.