St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PHI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brandon CrawfordBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.1 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rojas singled to right, Marsh scored, Rojas to second.2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Arenado homered to left (353 feet).2–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 3Crawford homered to right center (410 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–3
- 2Sosa homered to center (439 feet), Castellanos scored.0–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–3
- 2Marsh grounded out to first, Bohm scored, Castellanos to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML STL +180 / PHI -215
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 65.7%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -191
- STL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.0 – 4.5 PHI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1478 | 1561 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +4 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +113 Elo | PHI 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.64th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.62nd of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 15th of 3014–15 | Road vs home | 22–82nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 26–27 | 31–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 25–22 |
| Underdog | 18–12 | 6–4 |
| Overs–unders | 24–27–2 | 27–29–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 2–7 PHI in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.