Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting2-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Charlie BlackmonBatting1-5, 1 RBI
- Dakota HudsonPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Blackmon doubled to right, Goodman scored.8–4
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 38–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 28–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 9Castellanos singled to right, Bohm scored, Castellanos out stretching at second.8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Harper homered to left (374 feet), Schwarber scored and Stott scored.7–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 9Stubbs singled to right, Sosa scored.4–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–3
- 9Sosa tripled to right, Marsh scored.3–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 5Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to center, Stubbs scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 3Bryant grounded out to second, Tovar scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Goodman grounded into fielder's choice to second, Doyle scored, Stallings out at second.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Rodgers singled to center, McMahon scored, Bryant to third.1–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 1Harper singled to right, Schwarber scored.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 69%
- ML PHI -250 / COL +210
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 65.7%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -221
- COL +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 6.1 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1564 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Dakota Hudson: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +113 Elo | PHI 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 68.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 68.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.021st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.530th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 3rd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–7 | Road vs home | 10–1013th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–23 | 26–21 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–20 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 25–19 |
| Overs–unders | 25–26–1 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 8–3 COL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 11.