Philadelphia Phillies at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Edmundo SosaBatting2-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting4-6, 2 RBI
- Ty BlachPitching6.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 11Tovar singled to left, Doyle scored, McMahon to second, Beck to third.2–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 9Stallings homered to left center (427 feet).2–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Tovar singled to center, Goodman scored, Trejo to second.2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul2–0
- 5Sosa homered to left (388 feet).2–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
- 5Castellanos homered to center (445 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 66%
- ML PHI -215 / COL +180
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- PHI: Elo 66.1%, market 65.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -191
- COL +191 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 6.0 – 4.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1565 | 1436 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −15 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Ty Blach: team allows 0.74 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +116 Elo | PHI 66.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 63.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 63.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 65.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.4 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 4th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 5.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.8 | Margin | −1.528th of 30 |
| 1st of 309–1 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 1st of 3015–6 | Road vs home | 9–1018th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 29–22 | 25–21 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–19 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 6–3 | 24–19 |
| Overs–unders | 25–25–1 | 27–19 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 8–2 COL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 10.