St. Louis Cardinals at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Reds- Elly De La CruzBatting2-5
- Frankie MontasPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stephenson hit sacrifice fly to right, Martini scored, India to third.5–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 35–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 9Burleson walked, Siani scored, Goldschmidt to second, Donovan to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 45–2
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Candelario doubled to right, De La Cruz scored on throwing error by right fielder Carlson.4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 8Gorman homered to right center (378 feet).4–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 7India singled to center, Martini scored.3–1
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–1
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Swinging3–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Winn singled to right, Gorman scored, Carpenter to third.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 4Gorman doubled to right, Goldschmidt scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Carpenter homered to center (395 feet).1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 53%
- ML STL +105 / CIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.5 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.7%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CIN -114
- STL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.6 – 4.9 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −16 | STL: Andre Pallante (no track record yet) · CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +19 Elo | CIN 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 16th of 3013–15 | Road vs home | 14–1619th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–27 | 29–26 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 8–15 | 11–15 |
| Underdog | 17–12 | 18–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–26–2 | 26–28–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–7 CIN in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.