Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Freddie FreemanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Yoshinobu YamamotoPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Reds- Nick MartiniBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching4.1 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Freeman doubled to left, Ohtani scored.1–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 10–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–4
- 3Martini singled to left, Fraley scored and India scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 30–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 3India singled to right, De La Cruz scored and Steer scored, Fraley to third.0–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 65%
- ML LAD -210 / CIN +175
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.8 pts
- LAD: Elo 55.3%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -186
- CIN +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.4 – 4.1 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1553 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +7 | LAD: Yoshinobu Yamamoto: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CIN: Brent Suter: team allows 0.34 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +37 Elo | LAD 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −0.115th of 30 |
| 16th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–616th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–10 | Road vs home | 12–1524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–27 | 27–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–24 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 17–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–25–1 | 26–25–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–7 CIN in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 12.