Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Mookie BettsBatting1-4
- Walker BuehlerPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Reds- Spencer SteerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hunter GreenePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6De La Cruz singled to center, Hurtubise scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Benson homered to left center (411 feet).1–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Heyward grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Smith scored, Lux out at second, T. Hernández to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 30–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
- 1Steer homered to left (362 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 58%
- ML LAD -150 / CIN +130
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- LAD: Elo 58.2%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- LAD -138
- CIN +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.1 – 4.4 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | 0 | LAD: Walker Buehler: team allows 0.43 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · CIN: Hunter Greene: team allows 0.00 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +57 Elo | LAD 58.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 54.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 5th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.4 | Margin | −0.216th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 8th of 3013–9 | Road vs home | 11–1524th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–26 | 26–25 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–23 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 28–24–1 | 26–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–6 CIN in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 11.