Los Angeles Dodgers at Cincinnati Reds, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Dodgers- Teoscar HernandezBatting2-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- James PaxtonPitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Reds- Jonathan IndiaBatting3-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Graham AshcraftPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9T. Hernández homered to right (345 feet).6–9
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball In Play6–9
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 9Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 35–9
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–9
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 25–9
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–9
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–9
- 5India homered to left (367 feet), Stephenson scored, Espinal scored and Martini scored.5–9
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–9
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking5–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 35–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 5Martini hit by pitch, Steer scored, Espinal to second, Stephenson to third.5–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 35–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 5Fairchild homered to left (361 feet).5–4
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 35–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging5–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 5Smith homered to right center (369 feet).5–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 2Ohtani grounded out to shortstop, Pages scored, Betts to third.4–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Betts hit a ground rule double, Taylor scored, Pages to third.3–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 2Taylor doubled to center, Lux scored and T. Hernández scored.2–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 59%
- ML LAD -160 / CIN +135
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- LAD: Elo 59.5%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- LAD -145
- CIN +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAD 5.7 – 4.8 CIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAD | CIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −8 | LAD: James Paxton: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CIN: Graham Ashcraft: team allows 0.40 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +67 Elo | LAD 59.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 57.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| LAD | Stat | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| 2nd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.120th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.5 | Margin | −0.218th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–722nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 3013–8 | Road vs home | 10–1526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAD |  CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–25 | 25–25 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 26–22 | 10–14 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 27–24–1 | 25–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAD 5–5 CIN in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 10.