Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Cole IrvinPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Stowers sacrificed into double play, right to first, Hays scored, Mullins thrown out at first.4–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 7Winn homered to left (375 feet).3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 6Donovan doubled to center, Carlson scored on error, Donovan scored on throwing error by catcher McCann and Arenado scored.3–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 5Nootbaar singled to center, Winn scored.3–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging3–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 3Santander singled to left, Henderson scored.3–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3O'Hearn grounded out to second, McCann scored, Henderson to third.2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 3Henderson singled to center, Urías scored, Henderson to second, McCann to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 54%
- ML BAL -130 / STL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 57.8%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BAL -119
- STL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1544 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | BAL: John Means: team allows 0.11 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +55 Elo | BAL 57.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.823rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −0.925th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 3rd of 3012–7 | Road vs home | 10–1220th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–21 | 23–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 17–19 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 15–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–20–2 | 22–23–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–4 STL in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.