Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jorge MateoBatting1-3, 1 RBI
- Kyle BradishPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Gorman homered to right center (407 feet), Herrera scored.1–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–3
- 5Mateo doubled to left, Stowers scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Gorman doubled to center, Burleson scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 60%
- ML BAL -165 / STL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 61.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- BAL -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 4.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1547 | 1468 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −11 | BAL: Kyle Bradish: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +81 Elo | BAL 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.924th of 30 |
| 9th of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+1.2 | Margin | −1.026th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–6 | Road vs home | 9–1224th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–20 | 22–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 8–13 |
| Underdog | 8–2 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 24–19–2 | 22–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–3 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.