Baltimore Orioles at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Cardinals- Michael SianiBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 7Winn reached on infield single to first, Goldschmidt scored, Herrera to second, Burleson to third.3–6
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–6
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Henderson homered to center (417 feet), Mullins scored and Mateo scored.3–5
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul0–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 20–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 10–5
- 4Siani homered to right center (396 feet), Herrera scored and Winn scored.0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Winn doubled to left, Burleson scored, Herrera to third.0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 2Siani singled to center, Gorman scored.0–1
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 20–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 66%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- STL 66%
- ML BAL +185 / STL -227
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.8 pts
- STL: Elo 44.6%, market 66.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -198
- BAL +198 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.5 – 5.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1549 | 1466 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | +11 | BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +38 Elo | BAL 55.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 51.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 66.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| BAL | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 3.825th of 30 |
| 6th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.925th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+1.3 | Margin | −1.126th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3012–5 | Road vs home | 8–1227th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 25–19 | 21–24 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–18 | 7–13 |
| Underdog | 8–1 | 14–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–19–2 | 21–22–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–2 STL in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.