Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-3, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting2-4, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Happ homered to center (425 feet).3–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 7Happ homered to right center (409 feet), Hoerner scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 20–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 5Goldschmidt homered to left (399 feet), Donovan scored.0–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Goldschmidt homered to left (424 feet), Burleson scored.0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 56%
- ML CHC +120 / STL -140
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.1 pts
- STL: Elo 46.1%, market 56.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -128
- CHC +128 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.5 – 4.0 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1512 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | +12 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.87 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +27 Elo | CHC 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.824th of 30 |
| 14th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 8–22nd of 30 |
| 18th of 3012–14 | Road vs home | 12–1213th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 27–25 | 24–25 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 6–15 | 8–14 |
| Underdog | 21–10 | 16–11 |
| Overs–unders | 23–28–1 | 24–23–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 8–6 STL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.