Atlanta Braves at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Orlando ArciaBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Mike TauchmanBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 10Hoerner reached on infield single to second, Bellinger scored, Happ to second.3–4
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–4
- 10Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 10Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 6Tauchman singled to right, Busch scored, Amaya to second.3–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–3
- 4Harris II homered to left center (391 feet).3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Swanson scored, Tauchman to second on passed ball by d'Arnaud, Amaya to third on passed ball by d'Arnaud.2–2
- 2Swanson scored, Tauchman to second on passed ball by d'Arnaud, Amaya to third on passed ball by d'Arnaud.2–2
- 2Tauchman singled to right, Busch scored, Amaya to second, Swanson to third.2–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Arcia homered to center (420 feet), d'Arnaud scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML ATL -130 / CHC +110
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 49.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 5.9 – 5.6 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +16 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.78 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +3 Elo | CHC 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 7th of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.312th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+0.9 | Margin | +0.212th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 9th of 3011–9 | Road vs home | 14–98th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 23–21 | 25–23 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 19–20 | 6–14 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 19–9 |
| Overs–unders | 14–27–3 | 21–26–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 6–3 CHC in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 9.