Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Edward OlivaresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jared JonesPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Ian HappBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Justin SteelePitching5.2 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Morel hit sacrifice fly to left, Suzuki scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–4
- 6Olivares scored on error, Grandal safe at first on fielding error by right fielder Suzuki, Grandal safe at second on error.5–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–3
- 5Bellinger doubled to right, Tauchman scored, Bellinger to third.4–3
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Reynolds doubled to left, Taylor scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Madrigal singled to right, Busch scored, Madrigal to second.3–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 4N. Gonzales homered to left center (383 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 2Happ homered to right (383 feet).2–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Olivares homered to left center (381 feet), Cruz scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 53%
- ML PIT +105 / CHC -125
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 56.4%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- CHC -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.6 – 3.9 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1467 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −16 | PIT: Jared Jones: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Justin Steele: team allows 0.81 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +45 Elo | CHC 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 55.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.8 | Margin | +0.310th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3010–13 | Road vs home | 13–62nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 18–24 | 25–19 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 6–11 |
| Underdog | 13–9 | 19–8 |
| Overs–unders | 21–21 | 19–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–12 CHC in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 16.