Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Jared TrioloBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Morel doubled to center, Tauchman scored and Happ scored, Bellinger to third.9–3
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play9–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking9–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 8Amaya homered to left center (374 feet).9–1
- 8Pitch 10 : Ball In Play9–1
- 8Pitch 9 : Ball 39–0
- 8Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul9–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 19–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging9–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 8McCutchen homered to left (369 feet).9–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 5Grandal singled to right, Joe scored and Suwinski scored.8–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 26–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 5N. Gonzales hit sacrifice fly to center, Reynolds scored.6–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 4Triolo singled to center, Grandal scored on error and Tellez scored on throwing error by center fielder Crow-Armstrong, Triolo to third.5–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 4Grandal singled to left, N. Gonzales scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Triolo homered to left (399 feet), Tellez scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 52%
- ML PIT -120 / CHC +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 45%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 42%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 42.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PIT -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.8 – 3.7 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −26 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.60 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 1.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +56 Elo | CHC 58.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 54.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.611th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.312th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–617th of 30 |
| 20th of 3011–13 | Road vs home | 13–77th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 19–24 | 25–20 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 5–15 | 6–12 |
| Underdog | 14–9 | 19–8 |
| Overs–unders | 22–21 | 20–24–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 5–12 CHC in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 17.